QB’s to Start
Eli has been pretty bad the last few weeks. He seems to do this every year, so I suggest sticking with him and playing it out. Playing in New Orleans is probably a tougher matchup than it seems on paper, but I expect Brees to come out guns blazing, so Eli will have to keep up.
Save for a terrible Peyton Manning showing against Oakland’s defense, their pass defending has been pretty awful. I think Fitzpatrick is a sneaky play this week, especially in DFS where he is going for a cheap price. The only thing that could hamper him is if this game gets out of hand quickly, which is possible with Derek Carr facing a team that loves intercepting passes.
“Yeah, no s***.” It’s pretty obvious that you should play Matt Ryan this week. Tampa Bays has been brutal against the pass. The only example you need is that they got shredded by Kirk Cousins last week.
QB’s to Sit
Yes, KC’s secondary has been atrocious, but I think there are better options out there. This game is in London and the Lions just fired their OC. I’m not saying he’ll have a bad game, but if you’re stuck choosing between Stafford and a similar QB, go with the other guy.
Odds are if you’re thinking about starting him you’re in a bye week pinch. Please look elsewhere. The Rams defense is pretty tenacious and currently top five against the pass. I would look to someone like Nick Foles before going with Kaepernick this week.
He’s almost unplayable at this point. The Packers are probably going to pound the hell out of the ball to avoid that Denver secondary, so Peyton will probably get less opportunity than normal. He’s also thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year. Peyton Manning…has a negative turnover ratio.
RB’s to Start
This is another “don’t give up on him” situation. It was right around this time last year that Lacy started to carry a heavier load down the stretch and turn into a top ten back. I expect him to do the same here against a defense who eats up the passing game. They’ve been good not great against the run, meaning Lacy will have a nice day assuming McCarthy gets over his James Starks obsession.
Though the Colts haven’t shown much on the offensive side of things, most teams still want to keep Andrew Luck off the field as much as possible. Expect him to get a goal line change or two as well, as the Panthers will likely pick Luck off at least once.
In a messy London game I expect KC to keep things as simple as possible, and that probably means running West 20-25 times. The only problem is that Knile Davis could vulture a short yardage touchdown, but I still expect West to acquire enough yardage to make him worth a start.
RB’s to Sit
The Panthers are average against the run, but I simply don’t like Gore’s offensive line. I think Luke Kuechly is going to get to him before he has a chance to spring a big run because the offensive line’s ability to get to the second level for the Colts isn’t great.
On paper he has a great matchup as the Falcons run defense is pretty awful. However, I think Atlanta jumps out to a very early lead, leaving a ton of carries off the board for Martin. Plus he always has the ability to get hurt or lose carries to Charles Sims.
Sure, he was just named the starter, but what does that even mean these days in Dallas? He’s still Darren McFadden, and he’s still playing the Seahawks excellent run defense. I could actually see Christine Michael getting more carries than McFadden this week.
WR’s to Start
KC has been the worst secondary in the league this year. However, they do still have a good player in Eric Berry who can help cover bigger targets, namely Calvin Johnson. It should be relatively easy for Stafford to check off his main target if he’s partially covered to feed Tate enough throughout the game.
The 49ers love giving up big plays this year, and Tavon Austin gets most of his production as a deep-ball threat. He should have at least one, if not two long catches that will most likely result in touchdowns.
I think Mr. Brown is slowly going to turn into the #1 target down the stretch for Carson Palmer. As good as Fitzgerald has been, if teams key on him they can contain him. And that only opens the door for more John Brown.
WR’s to Sit
Oakland’s secondary hasn’t been tremendous but they can cover people. I expect Marshall to eat up a ton of targets and receptions because he’s simply much harder to cover. Plus he is probably playing with a chip on his shoulder after last week.
Another victim of a bad matchup as the Rams’ defense doesn’t give up much to wide receivers. The upside is that they might give up on the run pretty quickly, so Boldin may get more targets than normal. I just don’t see the targets converting into receptions.
If the Colts are going to have any success through the air, it’s definitely not going to come through big plays. I can see Moncrief having solid enough days, but Hilton doesn’t make his living through short five yard passes.